Expert Political Judgment

In this insightful audiobook, Philip E. Tetlock examines the critical need for standards in evaluating expert opinions, particularly in light of the intelligence failures surrounding the Iraq invasion. He explores the complexities of predicting future events and analyzes the effectiveness of different thinking styles, contrasting the adaptable fox with the rigid hedgehog. By comparing expert forecasts with those of well-informed laypeople, Tetlock illuminates the qualities that contribute to successful prediction and critiques the media's emphasis on single-minded ideological combat. This meticulously researched work serves as a valuable resource for scholars and organizations alike, aiming to refine the standards for expert decision-making.