Superforecasting

In "Superforecasting," Wharton professor Philip Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner explore the art of effective prediction, revealing insights from a comprehensive study on forecasting. Drawing on a decade of research and a vast government-funded tournament involving thousands of participants, the authors identify the traits and habits that enable some individuals—dubbed "superforecasters"—to excel at predicting future events. This groundbreaking book not only highlights why certain predictors outshine traditional experts but also offers practical strategies for improving forecasting skills applicable across various aspects of life.