The Odds We Live By

This book explores how prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, serve as dynamic environments where psychology, economics, and social influences converge to reveal collective expectations about the future. Through engaging and accessible insights, it explains how market prices encode probabilities, how incentives guide decision-making across all ages, and how various factors like market design and cognitive biases influence our understanding of uncertainty. The book aims to equip readers with practical tools to interpret market signals and think more clearly about the future in a probabilistic world.